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Emerging Infectious Diseases Journal
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Volume 6: No. 2, April 2009

LETTER
 Projected Burden of Chronic, Noncommunicable Diseases in Jordan

Population Year
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2004 estimate 416 484 519 560 602 642 677 708 736 759
+0.1 percentage points per year 416 516 588 672 763 855 948 1039 1128 1215
+0.25 percentage points per year 416 565 692 840 1004 1176 1354 1535 1717 1898
+0.5 percentage points per year 416 645 865 1120 1405 1711 2032 2361 2699 3036

Figure 1. Projected population with diabetes mellitus in Jordan from 2005 to 2050 according to 4 different projected prevalence variants. Figure generated by the authors using data from the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2) and Zindah et al (5).

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Population Year
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2004 estimate 821 955 1025 1105 1188 1266 1336 1398 1452 1498
+0.1 percentage points per year 821 987 1094 1217 1349 1480 1607 1728 1845 1953
+0.25 percentage points per year 821 1036 1198 1385 1590 1801 2013 2224 2434 2637
+0.5 percentage points per year 821 1116 1371 1666 1991 2335 2691 3051 3415 3775

Figure 2. Projected population with hypertension in Jordan from 2005 to 2050 according to 4 different projected prevalence variants. Figure generated by the authors using data from the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2) and Zindah et al (5).

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Population Year
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2004 estimate 355 413 443 478 514 547 578 604 628 648
+0.1 percentage points per year 355 445 512 590 674 761 849 935 1021 1103
+0.25 percentage points per year 355 494 616 758 915 1082 1255 1431 1609 1786
+0.5 percentage points per year 355 574 789 1038 1317 1617 1932 2257 2591 2925

Figure 3. Projected population with high blood cholesterol in Jordan from 2005 to 2050 according to 4 different projected prevalence variants. Figure generated by the authors using data from the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2) and Zindah et al (5).

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The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.


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