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Heart Disease and Cancer Deaths — Trends and Projections in the United States, 1969–2020

CME ACTIVITY — Volume 13 — November 17, 2016

PEER REVIEWED

Figure 1. Trends in observed (1969–2014) and predicted (2015–2020) heart disease and cancer deaths attributed to the average person’s risk of dying from the disease (ie, population risk, accounting for such factors as changes in diagnostic and treatment practices), population growth, and population aging, by sex. The blue dashed line (baseline) is the number of deaths from heart disease or cancer that occurred in 1969. The dark yellow (1969–2014) and light yellow (2015–2020) line represents the total number of deaths that would have occurred each year if the population size and age structure remained the same as it was in 1969; this line reflects the effect of changes in population risk. The black (1969–2014) and gray (2015–2020) line represents the total number of deaths that would have occurred if the age structure had remained the same as it was in 1969; this line reflects the effect of changes in risk and population growth. The dark orange (1969–2014) and light orange (2015–2020) line represents the expected number of deaths that actually occurred and thus reflects the combined impact of changes in population risk, growth, and aging. A. Heart disease deaths among men. The number of heart disease deaths attributed to risk declined while the number of heart disease deaths resulting from population growth and aging increased. Observed heart disease deaths declined from 1969 through 2014 and are predicted to increase through 2020, primarily because of an aging population. B. Number of cancer deaths among men. The number of cancer deaths attributed to risk increased from 1969 through 2000 and declined from 2000 forward. The number of cancer deaths resulting from population growth and aging increased. Observed cancer deaths increased from 1969 through 2014 and are predicted to continue to increase through 2020, primarily because of an aging population. C. Number of heart disease deaths among women. The number of heart disease deaths attributed to risk declined while the number of heart disease deaths resulting from population growth and aging increased. Observed heart disease deaths increased from 1969 through 1995, primarily because of an aging population. Observed heart disease deaths are predicted to continue to decrease through 2020, primarily because of continued risk reduction. D. Number of cancer deaths among women. The number of cancer deaths attributed to risk increased from 1969 through 2000 and declined from 2000 forward. The number of cancer deaths resulting from population growth and aging increased. Observed cancer deaths increased from 1969 through 2015 and are predicted to continue to increase through 2020, primarily because of an aging population.

Figure 1A. Men, Heart Disease Deaths
Year Baseline Line 1, Population Size Line 2, Age Structure Line 3, Observed Deaths
1969 421,729 421,729 421,729 421,729
1970 421,729 417,803 416,660 410,665
1971 421,729 419,612 417,322 405,475
1972 421,729 418,977 415,111 398,428
1973 421,729 424,390 417,833 397,265
1974 421,729 411,434 401,383 378,257
1975 421,729 399,436 386,874 361,213
1976 421,729 400,533 384,595 355,684
1977 421,729 396,406 376,718 345,037
1978 421,729 398,130 374,602 339,654
1979 421,729 396,281 369,428 331,359
1980 421,729 405,574 374,392 331,951
1981 421,729 400,456 367,489 322,598
1982 421,729 398,469 362,366 315,049
1983 421,729 402,656 362,827 312,503
1984 421,729 397,029 355,000 303,036
1985 421,729 398,101 353,056 298,612
1986 421,729 390,793 343,889 288,042
1987 421,729 385,151 335,640 278,512
1988 421,729 385,337 332,782 273,531
1989 421,729 368,145 315,412 256,697
1990 421,729 360,729 306,761 246,705
1991 421,729 359,740 303,011 240,318
1992 421,729 357,492 298,382 233,184
1993 421,729 367,433 303,233 233,771
1994 421,729 361,229 295,448 224,891
1995 421,729 362,663 293,159 220,379
1996 421,729 360,021 287,981 213,860
1997 421,729 356,549 281,854 206,700
1998 421,729 353,860 276,024 199,940
1999 421,729 351,580 270,488 193,540
2000 421,729 344,766 262,387 185,515
2001 421,729 339,048 255,260 178,601
2002 421,729 340,899 253,166 175,466
2003 421,729 336,068 245,684 168,858
2004 421,729 321,941 232,427 158,177
2005 421,729 322,816 228,789 154,228
2006 421,729 315,676 220,726 147,327
2007 421,729 309,800 212,746 140,634
2008 421,729 311,183 210,046 137,529
2009 421,729 307,202 204,114 132,481
2010 421,729 307,365 200,209 128,853
2011 421,729 308,376 197,455 126,075
2012 421,729 312,462 196,027 124,171
2013 421,729 321,329 197,794 124,314
2014 421,729 325,050 196,952 122,843
2015 421,729 319,035 190,779 117,934
2016 421,729 319,315 188,457 115,517
2017 421,729 319,793 186,066 113,100
2018 421,729 324,027 185,907 112,070
2019 421,729 327,632 185,713 111,040
2020 421,729 331,711 185,481 110,010


Figure 1B. Men, Cancer Deaths
Year Baseline Line 1, Population Size Line 2, Age Structure Line 3, Observed Deaths
1969 175,404 175,404 175,404 175,404
1970 175,404 179,352 179,026 176,437
1971 175,404 183,072 182,404 177,237
1972 175,404 188,668 187,418 179,886
1973 175,404 190,467 188,235 178,978
1974 175,404 195,852 192,267 181,188
1975 175,404 198,586 193,691 180,842
1976 175,404 204,515 198,004 183,119
1977 175,404 209,500 201,035 184,137
1978 175,404 214,980 204,556 185,466
1979 175,404 220,014 207,663 186,268
1980 175,404 225,943 211,667 187,664
1981 175,404 227,874 212,381 186,431
1982 175,404 233,849 216,339 188,094
1983 175,404 238,367 219,052 188,681
1984 175,404 242,790 221,810 189,332
1985 175,404 246,917 224,202 189,641
1986 175,404 250,558 226,183 189,454
1987 175,404 254,655 228,459 189,569
1988 175,404 258,092 230,224 189,242
1989 175,404 263,323 233,316 189,887
1990 175,404 268,292 236,410 190,127
1991 175,404 272,396 238,370 189,046
1992 175,404 274,843 238,839 186,657
1993 175,404 279,401 240,948 185,750
1994 175,404 280,479 240,397 182,980
1995 175,404 281,635 239,126 179,735
1996 175,404 281,916 237,773 176,578
1997 175,404 281,128 235,037 172,371
1998 175,404 282,079 233,839 169,392
1999 175,404 285,826 234,939 168,100
2000 175,404 286,072 233,206 164,890
2001 175,404 287,068 232,112 162,393
2002 175,404 288,763 230,698 159,898
2003 175,404 287,982 226,739 155,826
2004 175,404 286,824 223,253 151,948
2005 175,404 290,417 222,686 150,126
2006 175,404 290,064 219,469 146,488
2007 175,404 292,853 217,699 143,919
2008 175,404 295,253 216,094 141,504
2009 175,404 296,758 213,589 138,636
2010 175,404 301,032 212,696 136,899
2011 175,404 302,228 209,973 134,090
2012 175,404 305,661 208,108 131,823
2013 175,404 307,553 204,901 128,782
2014 175,404 311,285 203,486 126,918
2015 175,404 315,189 202,456 125,153
2016 175,404 317,789 200,696 123,019
2017 175,404 321,107 198,875 120,885
2018 175,404 326,119 198,221 119,493
2019 175,404 330,633 197,522 118,101
2020 175,404 335,283 196,775 116,709


Figure 1C. Women, Heart Disease Deaths
Year Baseline Line 1, Population Size Line 2, Age Structure Line 3, Observed Deaths
1969 317,341 317,341 317,341 317,341
1970 317,341 323,583 308,733 300,580
1971 317,341 323,583 308,733 300,580
1972 317,341 330,811 308,430 296,901
1973 317,341 332,565 302,808 288,513
1974 317,341 326,624 289,465 273,093
1975 317,341 323,216 274,186 255,992
1976 317,341 323,216 276,571 255,686
1977 317,341 322,301 269,603 246,669
1978 317,341 331,161 271,022 245,266
1979 317,341 336,811 270,481 242,012
1980 317,341 355,364 279,588 247,178
1981 317,341 353,282 273,173 239,187
1982 317,341 356,947 270,892 234,969
1983 317,341 367,649 273,698 235,300
1984 317,341 367,973 269,445 229,718
1985 317,341 353,282 268,331 226,826
1986 317,341 374,370 265,415 222,399
1987 317,341 375,095 261,799 217,520
1988 317,341 379,711 261,273 215,187
1989 317,341 365,630 247,971 202,403
1990 317,341 359,225 240,622 194,314
1991 317,341 361,015 238,081 189,798
1992 317,341 360,126 234,585 184,587
1993 317,341 375,947 240,916 187,168
1994 317,341 371,109 235,241 180,608
1995 317,341 374,807 234,754 178,213
1996 317,341 373,259 231,805 174,024
1997 317,341 370,357 227,813 169,080
1998 317,341 370,943 226,014 165,883
1999 317,341 373,565 224,764 163,218
2000 317,341 365,935 218,386 156,954
2001 317,341 361,028 214,708 152,879
2002 317,341 356,001 210,856 148,776
2003 317,341 348,986 205,228 143,545
2004 317,341 330,509 193,698 134,298
2005 317,341 329,238 190,731 131,060
2006 317,341 315,920 181,520 123,574
2007 317,341 306,240 174,065 117,383
2008 317,341 305,616 172,098 114,986
2009 317,341 292,183 163,719 108,422
2010 317,341 290,296 160,248 105,243
2011 317,341 288,174 157,598 102,653
2012 317,341 287,211 155,215 100,463
2013 317,341 289,753 154,957 99,564
2014 317,341 289,255 153,913 98,182
2015 317,341 281,675 147,888 93,700
2016 317,341 278,222 145,087 91,209
2017 317,341 274,913 142,229 88,717
2018 317,341 274,964 141,247 87,424
2019 317,341 274,505 140,235 86,130
2020 317,341 274,897 139,191 84,837


Figure 1D. Women, Cancer Deaths
Year Baseline Line 1, Population Size Line 2, Age Structure Line 3, Observed Deaths
1969 146,360 146,360 146,360 146,360
1970 146,360 150,023 148,394 146,419
1971 146,360 152,896 149,634 145,698
1972 146,360 157,293 152,207 146,521
1973 146,360 159,096 152,178 145,001
1974 146,360 163,073 154,030 145,331
1975 146,360 171,143 154,477 144,232
1976 146,360 171,143 158,342 146,392
1977 146,360 175,372 160,429 146,771
1978 146,360 180,119 163,035 147,530
1979 146,360 183,374 164,138 146,863
1980 146,360 190,554 168,869 149,299
1981 146,360 194,206 170,643 149,415
1982 146,360 199,920 174,104 151,021
1983 146,360 204,590 176,543 151,768
1984 146,360 210,698 180,324 153,729
1985 146,360 214,646 182,511 154,273
1986 146,360 218,807 184,705 154,775
1987 146,360 222,277 186,159 154,665
1988 146,360 226,964 188,737 155,437
1989 146,360 232,857 192,192 156,887
1990 146,360 237,047 194,543 157,094
1991 146,360 242,288 197,603 157,540
1992 146,360 245,743 199,130 156,696
1993 146,360 250,523 201,577 156,612
1994 146,360 253,858 203,425 156,188
1995 146,360 256,852 204,456 155,199
1996 146,360 257,652 204,019 153,155
1997 146,360 258,476 203,380 150,951
1998 146,360 259,490 202,886 148,922
1999 146,360 264,003 205,151 148,973
2000 146,360 267,008 206,295 148,254
2001 146,360 266,692 205,422 146,253
2002 146,360 268,501 205,425 144,952
2003 146,360 268,908 204,225 142,840
2004 146,360 267,056 201,794 139,900
2005 146,360 268,886 201,292 138,314
2006 146,360 269,816 200,756 136,659
2007 146,360 270,014 199,067 134,240
2008 146,360 270,207 196,980 131,595
2009 146,360 270,856 195,772 129,647
2010 146,360 273,706 195,263 128,256
2011 146,360 274,457 193,559 126,200
2012 146,360 276,946 192,620 124,673
2013 146,360 277,319 190,321 122,286
2014 146,360 280,401 189,726 121,027
2015 146,360 281,683 187,835 119,010
2016 146,360 283,162 186,456 117,216
2017 146,360 285,294 185,039 115,421
2018 146,360 288,432 184,394 114,129
2019 146,360 291,280 183,719 112,838
2020 146,360 294,297 183,012 111,546

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Figure 2. Age-standardized death rates (ASDR) and the observed and predicted number of cancer and heart disease deaths from 1969 through 2020 for men and women combined.

Year Cancer Heart Disease
Age-Standardized Death Rate No. of Deaths Age-Standardized Death Rate for No. of Deaths
Observed
1969 198.6 321,764 520.4 739,070
1970 198.8 329,375 502.6 735,363
1971 198.9 335,968 496.6 743,195
1972 200.4 345,961 488 749,788
1973 198.7 349,563 481.7 756,955
1974 199.9 358,925 457.4 738,058
1975 199.1 364,095 431.7 716,098
1976 202.3 375,658 431 723,749
1977 203 384,872 416.6 718,707
1978 204.4 395,099 413 729,291
1979 204.5 403,388 405.2 733,092
1980 207 416,497 411.1 760,938
1981 206.4 422,080 398.8 753,738
1982 208.3 433,769 390.7 755,416
1983 209.2 442,957 390.6 770,305
1984 210.9 453,488 380.4 765,002
1985 211.3 461,563 376.5 770,891
1986 211.8 469,365 366.7 765,163
1987 211.9 476,932 357.4 760,246
1988 212.6 485,056 353.7 765,048
1989 214.3 496,180 333.0 733,775
1990 214.9 505,339 320.3 719,954
1991 215.1 514,684 313.0 720,755
1992 213.5 520,586 304.4 717,618
1993 213.4 529,924 308.3 743,380
1994 211.7 534,337 297.5 732,338
1995 209.9 538,487 293.3 737,470
1996 207.0 539,568 285.9 733,280
1997 203.6 539,604 277.7 726,906
1998 200.8 541,569 271.3 724,803
1999 200.7 549,829 266.4 725,145
2000 198.8 553,080 256.3 710,701
2001 196.3 553,760 249.0 700,076
2002 194.4 557,264 244.1 696,900
2003 190.9 556,890 235.7 685,054
2004 186.8 553,880 220.9 652,450
2005 185.2 559,303 216.1 652,054
2006 182.0 559,880 204.8 631,596
2007 179.3 562,867 195.2 616,040
2008 176.3 565,460 191.3 616,799
2009 173.4 567,614 181.9 599,385
2010 171.7 574,738 177.2 597,661
2011 168.7 576,685 173.1 596,550
2012 166.3 582,607 169.8 599,673
2013 163.0 584,872 169.1 611,082
2014 161.2 591,686 166.6 614,305
Predicted
2015 158.7 596,872 159.4 600,711
2016 156.2 600,951 155.5 597,537
2017 153.7 606,401 151.5 594,707
2018 151.9 614,551 149.5 598,991
2019 150.2 621,914 147.4 602,137
2020 148.4 629,581 145.3 606,608

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