2016 Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections

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Four Scenarios of the Potential Impact of Expanded HIV Testing, Treatment and PrEP in the US, 2015-2020

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265,330 new infections could occur in the next five years, if current testing, treatment, and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) trends remain the same. If PrEP use increased among high-risk populations, 48,221 of those 265,330 new infections could be prevented. If NHAS strategy targets of 85% treatment and 80% viral suppression among those diagnosed are achieved and the use of daily (PrEP) increases, an estimated 185,000 new HIV infections could be prevented in the United States by 2020, a 70% reduction in new infections.

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Lifetime Risk of HIV Diagnosis in the United States

Lifetime Risk of HIV Diagnosis by Transmission Group
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Gay and bisexual men continue to be most affected by the HIV epidemic in the U.S. At current rates, 1 in 6 men who have sex with men (MSM) will be diagnosed with HIV in their lifetime, making them 83 times more likely than heterosexual men to be diagnosed with HIV in their lifetimes. People who inject drugs are also at increased lifetime risk for HIV.

Lifetime Risk of HIV Diagnosis among MSM by Race/Ethnicity
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While gay and bisexual men overall have the highest lifetime risk of an HIV diagnosis, that risk varies significantly based on race and ethnicity. At current rates, 1 in 2 African American MSM and 1 in 4 Hispanic MSM will be diagnosed with HIV in their lifetime, compared with 1 in 11 white MSM.

Lifetime Risk of HIV Diagnosis by Race/Ethnicity
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African American men overall are almost 7 times more likely than white men to be diagnosed with HIV in their lifetimes. The disparity among women is even greater: 1 in 48 African American women will be diagnosed with HIV in their lifetimes, compared with 1 in 227 Hispanic women and 1 in 880 white women.

Lifetime Risk of HIV Diagnosis by State
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People living in the South are more likely to be diagnosed with HIV over the course of their life than people in other parts of the country. States where risk is greatest include Maryland (1 in 49), Georgia (1 in 51), Florida (1 in 54), and Louisiana (1 in 56).